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65,000 Claims. $2.25 Billion Verdicts. Kavanaugh Preempted the Theory Behind All of It.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh's 7-2 majority in Monsanto v. Durnell holds that FIFRA expressly preempts the failure-to-warn theory that built the Roundup verdicts, erasing John Durnell's $1.25 million St. Louis award on the spot and reaching the roughly 65,000 suits still pending against Bayer. What survives is a design-defect theory one jury already rejected and a $7.25 billion settlement one judge called mind boggling.

Wesley ToddJuly 9, 20265 min read · 1,743 readers this week

On June 25, 2026, Justice Brett Kavanaugh cut the fuel line of the Roundup litigation at the United States Supreme Court. The instrument was a 22 page majority opinion in Monsanto v. Durnell, No. 24-1068, decided 7 to 2. Its operative sentence left state juries nothing to weigh: "as a matter of federal law, Monsanto legally must use a label without a cancer warning unless and until EPA approves or requires a change." The ruling erased John Durnell's $1.25 million St. Louis verdict on the spot, and its logic reaches the roughly 65,000 Roundup suits still pending against Bayer, per Bloomberg Intelligence figures reported by Claims Journal. The fight now is over how much of one of the largest mass torts in American history survives the sentence.

What changed is the theory, not a case. The claim at the center of the Roundup docket is failure to warn: Monsanto failed to warn users that glyphosate could cause non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Durnell won on exactly that claim. A St. Louis jury awarded him $1.25 million in September 2023, and the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District, affirmed. The Supreme Court has now held that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act expressly preempts it. The claim that built the verdicts is no longer a claim.

The mechanism is one clause of FIFRA. Section 136v(b) bars states from imposing labeling requirements "in addition to or different from" what federal law requires. EPA has reviewed glyphosate repeatedly and has never required a cancer warning. Kavanaugh's majority reasoned that a state jury verdict premised on a missing warning is itself a state labeling requirement, and a forbidden one, because federal law already fixes what the label must say. To the argument that EPA might be behind the science, the majority answered in the opinion's driest line: "EPA does not sit in an information-free silo. It keeps abreast of new safety developments." Justice Clarence Thomas concurred separately to flag constitutional concerns with FIFRA itself.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson spent 24 pages refusing to sign any of it. "The majority reads into FIFRA a labeling requirement that does not exist, and it reads out of FIFRA the statute's ongoing prohibition on misbranding," she wrote in dissent, joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch, per SCOTUSblog's coverage. Bayer CEO Bill Anderson claimed the win for a company that has spent more than $10 billion on this docket, saying in Bayer's own statement on the ruling: "It provides the regulatory clarity necessary for innovators like us to develop the agricultural tools that guarantee an affordable food supply." The pressure lands hardest on the lawyers who priced the old theory. In January 2024, Tom Kline of Kline & Specter and Jason Itkin of Arnold & Itkin won $2.25 billion for John McKivison from a Philadelphia jury in a case built in part on the same failure-to-warn theory. A judge later cut it to $400 million. Durnell cuts at what remains.

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The map of what survives is narrow and strange. The ruling blocks only failure-to-warn claims. Design defect and negligence claims can still go forward, and University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias told Claims Journal that juries "can still hand down billion-dollar verdicts against Bayer on grounds other than failure-to-warn." Here is the strange part. Durnell himself pleaded design defect, and his own St. Louis jury rejected it while handing him the warning verdict the Supreme Court just took away. The surviving path is the one the winning plaintiff already lost. Meanwhile Bayer's other exit is money: a $7.25 billion class settlement proposed in February 2026, now awaiting approval in a Missouri state court, which the federal judge overseeing the Roundup multidistrict litigation has criticized for opt-out provisions he called "mind boggling," per Claims Journal.

The next fight has three fronts and no idle one. Bayer will move to dismiss warning claims across the 65,000-case inventory, state court by state court and through the federal MDL. Plaintiffs firms will race to replead their warning cases as design-defect cases before the dismissal wave reaches them. And the Missouri settlement court will decide whether $7.25 billion buys global peace or, as the MDL judge warned, leaves a back door open wide enough for the whole docket to walk through it.

Justice Kavanaugh, last seen writing the price tag on Montgomery's preemption cascade, now holds the pen on its third act, and this one preempts the theory behind the biggest verdicts of the nuclear era. Durnell's $1.25 million is gone. McKivison's lineage is stranded. The warning claim died on June 25. What lives next is a design-defect theory one jury has already rejected and a settlement one judge already called mind boggling. Sixty-five thousand cases wait to learn which. The clock on all of them starts now.

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